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The two most important questions in assessing a race are:
How fast has each horse run in the past? How fast is it going to run today?
Thoro-Graph answers the first question by creating accurate performance figures. By placing the life history in figures on a graph, we allow you the opportunity to attack the second question with confidence.
Each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.
All this information is refined with a carefully crafted track variant down to one number for each horse in every race. The lower the number, the better the race. With few exceptions there will be a figure for every race a horse has run for the last four years.
Thoro-Graph figures are represented numerically and in a clear graphical format that is easy to read and understand. The format makes it possible to compare horses that have run under different conditions, at different distances over different tracks, and on different days. A handicapper or horseman can examine each horse’s history, form cycle, and relative ability in looking at today’s race.
With a little practice, you’ll be able to identify form cycles. Some run consistent patterns, varying from a simple good race/bad race pattern, bad race after an exceptionally good effort (the "bounce"), or more complex "circling" patterns where a horse gradually loses its form then slowly comes around toward its original level. Using our data it is possible to anticipate these moves and select horses which are not obvious to the general public. We also provide very sophisticated data that enables the handicapper to evaluate trainers and pedigrees when deciding how a horse will perform under different circumstances.
Of course there are infinite variations in how horses run and no two are alike. There are no hard and fast rules on how to interpret patterns and form cycles. Every handicapper will come up with his or her patterns they like or dislike. Some people will only bet longshots. Others just want to have fun and cash a race no matter what the return. Whatever your style, Thoro-Graph provides all you need to make you a better, more informed player.
It may take a little while to get the hang of our format, but you’ll realize quckly Thoro-Graph is everything you need to win.
The lower the number the faster the race. On our scale 1 point = ~1 length at 5 furlongs increasingly to 2 lengths at 1 1/4 miles.
Each sheet has 4 calendar years going back from right to left. The last race a horse ran would be the uppermost number in the rightmost column corresponding to the horse’s age. 5 pounds in weight = 1 point at all distances. The figures are adjusted for weight carried in previous races. If 2 horses run a TG figure of 10 today, a horse in at 115 will beat a horse in at 120 by 1 point, or 1 length at 5f.
Each path out from the rail (1 path) = 1 length of ground loss. Considering all else equal, in a 1 turn race a horse in the 3 path runs 2 lengths better than a horse on the rail.
Our figures aren’tt adjusted for horses that are off poorly or stumbled from the gate. Notations are made next to the figure.
Dirt figures 251 = 25 1/4 252 = 25 1/2 253 = 25 3/4 Turf races are denoted by "-" e.g. -25 is 25 on the turf.
|Races 5 1/2 furlongs and less are in italic light face e.g. 252||Races 6 furlongs to less than 1 mile are in light face e.g. 252|
|Races 1 mile to 1 1/8 miles are in bold face e.g. 252||Races more than 1 1/8 miles are in italic bold face e.g. 252|
Race summary key
Up to 8 running lines are provided for each horse. From left to right, the running line denotes race date, track, race#, track condition, distance, time of race, race condition, finish position, beaten lengths, weight, odds, Thoro-Graph figure, path, and equipment/ medication information. All trainer changes, not just claims, are listed.
The sale price for all thoroughbreds sold at public auction through Summer 2009 as a (W)eanling, (Y)earling, or (2)-year-old are shown at the bottom of a horse’s 2-year-old column.
Trainer and sire profiles
Trainer profiles with unusually good ROI (Return on Investment based on a $2 wager) will be shown on the sheets in bold. A poor ROI will be in italic. The TGI (Thoro-Graph index) for sires is the average figure achieved by all their offspring. Statistics are based solely on North American starts.
Figure-Based Trainer Profiles
1-- The studies are based on the "effective top" of each horse at the time of the race being measured. Effective top is defined here as the horse's best figure from his last six starts, or last 12 months if he ran less than 6 times during that period. This means, for example, that when we look at an instance of a trainer running a horse second off a layoff, that effort is compared to his previous six runs at that time.
2-- The efforts being measured are broken out into 4 categories--
a) "new top", defined as more than one point better than the previous "top",
b) "pair", defined as one point better or worse inclusive than the previous top,
c) "off race", defined as more than a point worse but less than 4 points worse than the previous top,
d) "x", defined as 4 or more points worse than the previous top.
3-- For the categories measuring how a trainer's horses do following a top, a pair of tops etc., we only used horses that have run at least 6 times for the trainer.
4-- We did not use a sequence where there was a trainer change in the last 3 starts (except for the "trainer change" studies). We are going to take a look at this and decide whether that is the right way to go or not.
5-- The bold face and italics indicate significantly higher or lower than average, respectively, not better or worse. Meaning, a trainer with a bold face "x" group in a category is getting more BAD performances than most.
6--We are comparing efforts to tops on the same surface only--if a horse raced on dirt we compared his effort to his best dirt number within his last 6 starts on any surface.
For the best experience on a mobile device we recommend that you view the full PDF file. Click Here to see the sample!